Weekly Market Analysis for Jan 06 to 10, 2025
What happened last week?
Nifty closed last week at 24004, up 0.8% over the previous week.
It was a very volatile week with price recording a higher high and also a lower low than the previous week.
Although price ended up higher, Nifty is still in the correction phase in the Weekly timeframe.
Sentiment Analysis
FIIs sold -11041 Cr and DIIs bought 9253 Crs last week.
FIIs continue selling spree. Not surprising though. Their derivatives positions suggest that they might continue to be net sellers.
FIIs have increased their short positions on Index Derivatives last week.
FII Index Sentiment continues to be Bearish. Props (Proprietary Traders) also continue to maintain their shorts. Since the second half of December both FII & Props have remained short.
Why are we interested in tracking FII & Prop?
Because they are the ones who end up being profitable. Not just that, the correlation of Index movement with their positions is high.
Nifty Sentiment Analysis…
Although Weekly Max Pain was very volatile, Monthly Max Pain remained stable at 24000.
There was a strong upmove propelled by Auto Stocks on Expiry day last week. But Positional Traders were unfazed. They maintained their positions.
Positional Traders maintain a neutral view that Nifty will circle around 24000. This view might change. But that will be visible as they change their positions which will eventually be reflected in the Max Pain. For now, they are neutral. That is the evidence we have and we will rely on it. We won’t forecast.
There is no clear Nifty Sentiment for this week based on Max Pain. Better to stay neutral or stay away.
Note: When the blue line and pink line below start moving up together, we will turn bullish. If they tread down together, we will stay Bearish.
Highlights from Last Week
Please check out Finvezto Bytes and Daily Notes for all highlights from last week. Adding key highlights below.
Key Upcoming Events
January 6 (Monday)
India Services PMI Final December
January 7 (Tuesday)
India GDP Growth Preliminary Data
January 9 (Thursday)
US FOMC Minutes
January 10 (Friday)
India Industrial Production November
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Disclaimer: Anand Ganapathy K is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst with SEBI registration number INH000016630. This weekly update highlights market trends and upcoming events for your awareness. It does not recommend buying or selling stocks mentioned in this newsletter. Securities market investments carry market risks. Kindly review all related documents before investing.