Weekly Market Analysis for Jan 29-Feb 02, 2024
Nifty falls for the second week; FII on a selling spree; Index Heavyweights drag; Union Budget; Fed Decision and much more.
What happened last week?
Nifty witnessed a second straight weekly fall triggered by FII Selling. FIIs sold ₹12000 Crores in the cash market. In January so far, FIIs have sold a whopping ₹35000 Crores in the cash market.
Index Heavyweights such as Banks, IT and FMCG experienced significant declines in the range of 1.5 to 2.5% pulling the Index down.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the interim budget for 2024-25 on February 1.
Since 2024 is an election year, with Lok Sabha Elections expected in April-May, the finance minister will present an Interim Budget or a Vote on Account in February, rather than a comprehensive annual budget.
The Q3FY24 earnings season has been good so far overall. Major companies are to announce results this week. The list is added below in Key Upcoming Events section.
Auto companies will release their January sales figures starting from February 1.
The outcome of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting is scheduled for January 31, which could provide more info on the potential timing of interest rate cuts.
Let us now dive deeper into FII DII positions.
FII Positions Analysis
FIIs remained sellers in the cash market.
They have closed longs during the expiry and are now carrying significant shorts on the Index going into the Feb Expiry.
FIIs are net long in the Stock Derivatives segment. But they have significantly reduced their long positions going into the next Expiry.
Overall, FIIs are Bearish as per their current open positions.
Nifty Analysis
Both price (black line) and max pain (blue line) have been making lower lows indicating Bearishness. If both go down together, the view is Bearish. If both go up together, the view is Bullish. That is all you need to form a basic view of Nifty.
Key Upcoming Events
Monday, 29 January
Results: ITC, NTPC, Marico, Bajaj Finance, Bharat Electronics. BPCL, GAIL, VI, Adani Green.
Tuesday, 30 January
Results: L&T, Bajaj Finserv, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
IPO: BLS E-Services subscription opens.
IPO Listing: EPACK Durable listing opens.
Wednesday, 31 January
Results: Maruti Suzuki, Sun Pharma, Ambuja Cements, Dixon Technologies
IPO Listing: Nova AgriTech listing opens.
India Fiscal Deficit Data
China Manufacturing PMI Data for Jan
Thursday, 1 February
India Union Budget: Interim budget for 2024-25 presented by Nirmala Sitharaman
Results: Titan, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports
Automobile Sales Data for Jan
US Fed Interest Rate Decision
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
Friday, 2 February
Results: Tata Motors, Indigo
Key Stock Announcements from Last Week
New Orders, Contracts & Projects
3i Infotech Limited has been awarded a work order by Concept Communications on behalf of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) for digital ad inventory and branding activities across 6105 railway stations in India, with a total contract value of approximately Rs. 32.70 crore over 27 months.
GE Power India Limited received a domestic order worth INR 7.01 Crores plus GST from Sanjay Gandhi Thermal Power Station for wind box components, with a 180-day execution period.
GE Power India Limited also received a Letter of Intent from NTPC Limited for supplying spares for 660 MW Generator Overhauling at Nabinagar Super Thermal Power Station, valued at INR 10.47 crores.
Elecon Engineering received a Rs. 82.78 Crores contract from Arcelormittal Nippon Steel India for manufacturing Belt Conveyor Equipment. The domestic order has an execution period of approximately 10 months.
Ashoka Buildcon Limited received a Letter of Acceptance from CIDCO for the Navi Mumbai International Airport Project worth Rs. 662.55 Crore.
Vascon Engineers Limited has received a Letter of Award from Capgemini Technology Services India Ltd. worth Rs. 416 Crores for construction contracting works in Chennai.
Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Ltd secured a Rs. 180 Crores project for expanding Max Smart Super Specialty Hospital in New Delhi. Total order inflow for FY 2023-24 is Rs. 5439.50 Crores.
Surya Roshni Limited has received an order amounting to ₹60.51 crore for supplying MS-Pipe (Coated) under a Multi-Village Drinking Water Supply Scheme.
RailTel Corporation of India secured a Rs. 162.73 Crore order from Navodaya Vidyalaya Samiti for supplying and implementing Integrated Infrastructure & IT solutions in JNVs Schools under PM SHRI Scheme.
Maharashtra Seamless Limited announced receiving two contracts worth Rs. 116 crores from Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. for supplying seamless pipes. The domestic contracts will be executed gradually.
Alphageo (India) Limited has been awarded a contract by Oil India Limited, Rajasthan, worth Rs. 57.15 Crores for 3D and 2D seismic data acquisition in Rajasthan. The contract is domestic, and to be executed by December 2024.
Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments
Sony Group calls off the merger agreement between Zee Entertainment and Culver Max Entertainment (CME), seeking a termination fee of $90 million. Zee Entertainment Enterprises replied to Culver Max and Bangla Entertainment, denying any breach of its obligations under the Merger Cooperation Agreement (MCA) and reiterating that it has complied with all its obligations in good faith. The Stock was down 38% last week.
Anupam Rasayan India incorporates a wholly owned subsidiary, Anupam Europe AG, in Basel, Switzerland.
Beardsell enters a non-binding term sheet for the acquisition of a leading manufacturer of radio frequency drying technology.
UFO Moviez India announces a strategic partnership with TSR Films, granting exclusive advertising screen rights across TSR’s network of over 403 screens.
Religare Enterprises receives CCI approval for the acquisition of 5.27 percent by entities linked to the Burman family, owners of Dabur India.
Piramal Enterprises: Piramal Alternatives Trust (PAT) has entered into an agreement to acquire a 10.39 percent stake in Annapurna Finance for Rs 300 crore.
Business Operations
Tata Motors plans to increase the prices of its entire passenger vehicle range by an average of 0.7 percent starting February 1, 2024, to offset rising input costs.
Tata Consultancy Services enables Euroclear Finland to integrate its core platform with the European securities settlement engine, facilitating easier cross-border settlements for investors in Finnish securities.
Lupin receives tentative approval from the US FDA for Rivaroxaban tablets, a generic equivalent of Xarelto tablets, with estimated annual sales of $8,249 million.
Coal India will set up two coal gasification plants to achieve the target of 100 MT coal gasification by 2030.
IRM Energy commenced commercial operations at the LCNG station in Namakkal district on January 24.
Management Changes
Pfizer appoints Amit Agarwal as Chief Financial Officer for five years, effective from February 26, 2024.
Steel Authority of India suspends directors and officials, including V. S. Chakravarthy and A. K. Tulsiani, due to alleged misconduct.
Atul Mehra resigns as Joint Managing Director of JM Financial, effective from April 20, 2024.
Cigniti Technologies appoints Srikanth Chakkilam as director and CEO.
Key Buying and Selling Deals
CAMS: Hdfc Bank Limited Sells 471,000 Shares at Rs. 2700; Fidelity Emerging Markets Fund F322 Buys 282,657 Shares at Rs. 2700
Medi Assist Health Services Ltd: Canara Robeco Mutual Fund Buys 2,001,000 Shares at Rs. 489.02; Goldman Sachs India Equity Portfolio Buys 1,534,472 Shares at Rs. 468.65; Nomura India Stock Mother Fund Buys 500,000 Shares at Rs. 465.56; BNP Paribas Arbitrage Buys 365,126 Shares at Rs. 462.28
Grasim Industries Ltd: Societe Generale Buys 135,820 Shares at Rs. 316.6
Sunteck: Briarwood Capital Master Fund Limited Sells 4,715,000 Shares at Rs. 445.5
Poonawalla Fincorp: Promoter Rising Sun Holdings has bought an additional 40,33,000 equity shares, or 0.52 percent stake, in the non-banking finance company.
Corporate Actions & Fund Raising
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services receives board approval to issue secured NCDs worth Rs 3,000 crore on a private placement basis.
NHPC: The Government of India is proposing to offer up to 50.5 lakh equity shares to eligible and willing employees of NHPC for Rs 71 per equity share.
Borosil: The Board of directors approved raising funds up to Rs 250 crore through qualified institution placement (QIP).
Regulatory
AU Small Finance Bank gets CCI approval for the amalgamation of Fincare Small Finance Bank, subject to RBI approval.
Cyient Inc., the US subsidiary of Cyient, settles a civil class action antitrust lawsuit for $7.4 million, utilising insurance amounts towards the settlement.
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