Weekly Market Analysis for Feb 19-23, 2024
Nifty closing above 22000; PSU Banks continuing their good run; Easing Inflation in India and much more...
What happened last week?
Nifty closed above 22000 for the first time in the weekly chart. Nifty was up by 1.2% last week to close at 22040.
Auto and PSU Banks were the top performers last week. PSU Banks continued their extraordinary run. Up 22% in the last 1 month.
Most Global Markets ended in the green. Japan continues to scale all-time highs.
However, the economic data from global economies are not so encouraging. The Japanese economy shrank by 0.4% Q0Q in the final three months of last year marking the start of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The UK economy also fell into recession in the final three months of last year.
Let us look at some local developments.
The Q3 FY24 Results season is coming to an end. Most of the companies have posted good results. The top-performing sectors of the season were Energy, Metal, BFSI, and Cement with the highest YoY increase in net profit. The laggards were IT and FMCG.
India CPI Inflation (Retail) eased to 5.1% in January 2024, the lowest in three months, from 5.69% in December 2023. The slowdown is mostly due to an ease in food inflation and favourable base effects from last year as inflation rose in January 2023.
India WPI Inflation (Wholesale) rose by 0.27% year-on-year in January 2023, marking the third consecutive period of wholesale inflation but slowing down from 0.73% in December.
Industrial production in India rose 3.8% year-on-year in December 2023, up from 2.4% in the previous month. Manufacturing output, which accounts for 78% of total production, advanced by 3.9%.
Total passenger vehicle sales in India surged by 13.9% from a year earlier to 339,441 in January 2024 from a 3.2% rise in December 2023. Good numbers.
The Reserve Bank of India will release minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on February 6-8.
Let us now dive deeper into FII DII positions.
FII Positions Analysis
FIIs sold for ₹6237 Crores and DIIs bought for ₹8731 Crores in the cash market.
We pointed out last week that DIIs are willing to buy as they have relatively lower hedges in place. They continue to support the markets.
FIIs are still on the short side on Index Derivatives. They have also not increased their longs in Stock Derivatives.
FIIs are Bearish. DIIs are Bullish.
Nifty & BankNifty Analysis
Nifty: Both Price (Momentum) and Max Pain (Sentiment) moved up last week suggesting bullishness.
BankNifty: Although Banknifty has underperformed Nifty in recent times, it witnessed a sharp surge both in price and max pain. Bullish.
Key Upcoming Events
Tuesday, February 20
Vibhor Steel Tubes IPO listing
China Interest Rate Decision
Wednesday, February 21
Juniper Hotels IPO subscription opens
Thursday, February 22
GPT Healthcare IPO subscription opens
RBI to release minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on February 6-8.
The US Federal Reserve to release minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Friday, February 23
India Bank Loan & Deposits Growth Data
Key Stock Announcements
All my notes on major stock announcements last week are arranged date-wise below. You can click on the respective note to view all updates.
Key Stock Results
I have filtered the top-performing stocks from last week's results. Do check it out below.
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