Weekly Market Analysis for April 15 to 19, 2024
What happened last week?
Although Nifty made a new all-time high of 22775 last week, it retreated to close at 22519. Not just India, major global indices fell towards the end of the week due to fears of conflict in the Middle East and higher US Inflation data.
On the sectoral front, Metals and Realty did well. PSU Banks and Pharma were down.
On the industry front, Solar Panel Manufacturing stocks shot up significantly last week. They are up 30% in the last 1 month.
As per the latest updates from the Middle East, Iran has launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel.
A higher-than-expected US Inflation data last Wednesday dampened hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as early as June. Official FED statement is awaited.
Oil prices, the US Dollar and Gold have all risen amidst the global uncertainties.
Let us look at India-specific developments.
India Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation fell to 4.85% in March 2024, the lowest since May 2023. A positive.
Manufacturing Production in India increased 5% YoY in February of 2024. A positive.
Industrial output in India rose by 5.7%YoY in February 2024, the sharpest increase since October 2023.
The gross GST collection (before refunds) grew 11.5 per cent to hit the second-highest numbers at Rs 1.78 trillion in March of the last financial year. The highest amount at Rs 1.87 trillion was collected in April 2023.
The 7-phase elections for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls will begin with the first phase on April 19. Voting will take place in 21 states and Union Territories and 102 constituencies, with results set to be declared on June 4.
The Q4 FY23 Results season is also underway with TCS announcing its results.
Let us now dive deeper into FII DII Data.
FII DII Positions Analysis
FIIs sold for ₹6526 Crores and DIIs bought for ₹12232 Crores in the cash market.
FIIs have added shorts on the Index and reduced longs in Stock Derivatives. They are Bearish.
In the recent fall on Friday, DIIs have not increased their hedges suggesting continued buying by them in the cash market.
Nifty Analysis
Nifty closed above 22500 despite the fall on Friday. Price and Max Pain fell significantly on Friday suggesting Bearish Sentiment and Momentum. Till both Price and Max Pain inch upwards, we will maintain a Bearish view.
Stocks with Institutional Activity Last Week
Key Upcoming Events
Monday (April 15)
India WPI Inflation
Euro Area Industrial Production
India Balance of Trade
US Retail Sales
Tuesday (April 16)
China GDP Growth Rate
China Industrial Production
US Manufacturing Production
Wednesday (April 17)
India Market Holiday
UK & Euro Area Inflation Rate
Thursday (April 18)
US Initial Jobless Claims Data
Friday (April 19)
India Elections Start
India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth Data
India Foreign Exchange Reserves Data
India RBI MPC Meeting Minutes
Key Stock Announcements Last week
All my notes on major stock announcements last week are arranged date-wise below. Please have a look at the respective note below to view all updates.
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