Weekly Market Analysis for Feb 12-16, 2024
Nifty closed the week lower; PSU Banks continue to outperform; RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and much more...
What happened last week?
Nifty closed marginally lower at 21782.5 last week. Nifty tried to break 22000 a couple of times but could not get follow through. Although Nifty has momentarily gone above 22000 multiple times, it has never managed to close above 21894 over the last 6 weeks. A close above 21900 in the Weekly chart is something I am looking forward to.
On the sectoral front, PSU Banks continue to outperform. PSU Banks were up 5% last week and 17% last month. Pharma also continued its good run.
Sector Performance | Finvezto Toolkit On the global front, most of the major indices moved higher over the week. with the US S&P 500 Index reaching breaching the 5,000 mark for the first time.
Global Market Performance | Finvezto Toolkit The Japanese market gained 2% over the week. Strong foreign investor interest in Japanese stocks continued in January.
Chinese markets rallied in a holiday-shortened week as the government’s latest stimulus measures offset concerns about deepening deflation.
Asian markets will be either partially or fully closed in the coming week on the occasion of Lunar New Year holiday.
Let us now look at some India Specific developments.
The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to maintain the repo rate at 6.5% due to retail inflation persisting above 4%. The MPC also decided to remain focused on the withdrawal of the accommodative stance.
India on Tuesday signed a $78 billion deal to extend LNG imports from Qatar by another 20 years till 2048 at rates lower than current prices.
The India Services PMI was at 61.8 in January 2024 higher than December’s figures of 59, pointing to the fastest growth in the services sector in six months. New orders increased at the fastest in six months, with export sales rising the most in three months.
The Q3 FY24 results season is in progress. More than 50% of the companies have announced their results. At an aggregate level, Revenues have grown by 10.7% YoY and Net Profit has grown by 22% YoY. Good season so far.
Let us now dive deeper into FII DII positions.
FII Positions Analysis
FIIs sold ₹5800 Crores and DIIs bought ₹5325 Crores in the cash market.
We have mentioned over the last couple of weeks that the DIIs are relatively less hedged. This means they are likely to support the market if needed and be net buyers in the cash market. Even now, the DIIs are relatively less hedged.
FIIs continue to maintain short positions on the Index. Also, they have reduced longs in Stock Derivatives.
Long story short. FIIs have continued to be Bearish since Jan. DIIs are chipping in to arrest any big fall. FIIs are Bearish. DIIs are Bullish.
Nifty Analysis
Last week, although Nifty tried to break 22000, the Max Pain did not even move above 21900. Max Pain hovered between 21750 and 21900 and settled at 21800. Both Momentum (Price) and Sentiment (Max Pain) have been range-bound. Currently, we do not have enough evidence to take a short-term view.
Key Upcoming Events
Monday (February 12):
Results: Coal India, Bharat Forge, GSK Pharma
India Industrial & Manufacturing Production Data
India Inflation Rate
Tuesday (February 13):
Results: ONGC, BHEL, Eicher Motors, Hindalco.
IPO: Vibhor Steel Tubes IPO Opens.
US Core Inflation Rate Data
Wednesday (February 14):
Results: Mahindra & Mahindra
India Wholesale Price Index Inflation (WPI) Data
Thursday (February 15):
US Initial Jobless Claims Data
US Industrial Production MoM Data
India Balance of Trade Data
Friday (February 16):
India Foreign Exchange Reserves Data
Key Stock Announcements from Last Week
New Orders, Contracts & Projects
Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) secures an order worth more than Rs 5,500 crore from Haryana Power Generation Corporation for setting up a 1x800 MW ultra-critical expansion unit.
Cochin Shipyard: Signs a contract with the Indian Navy for the medium refits of two Indian naval vessels worth Rs 150 crore.
KPI Green Energy: Receives a new order of 15 MW for executing a solar power project under the captive power producer (CPP) segment from Aether Industries.
Kilburn Engineering Limited announces the receipt of orders totalling Rs. 42 Crores, including contracts for Hydrogen Fluoride Reactor packages, Rotary Dryers, VFBD for wet clay, and Tea Dryers.
Ramkrishna Forgings Limited secures a USD 13.16 million contract from a North American axle manufacturer for rear axle and off-highway business, reinforcing its commitment to excellence and innovation.
Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Ltd receives a Rs. 394.36 Crores project from Emaar India Ltd for Residential Tower & Club House Works in Gurgaon, Haryana.
L&T (Larsen & Toubro) wins a large onshore project from Indian Oil Adani Ventures Limited for Hydrocarbon Business, involving engineering, procurement, construction, and commissioning.
VA TECH WABAG secures a USD 33.5 million order for an Industrial Wastewater Treatment Plant at Ras Tanura Refinery Project, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, from SEPCO III.
RailTel Corporation of India has secured a major order from Western Railways valued at Rs. 124.90 Crore for implementing a unified communication infrastructure over the Western Railway network.
Marine Electricals (India) Limited discloses receiving Rs. 22.82 crore orders from Wakad Realty and L&T Construction for LT Panels, with delivery periods of 3 and 5 months.
Dynacons Systems & Solutions Limited has secured a Rs. 214 Crore order from Union Bank of India for Hyper-Converged Infrastructure and Software Solutions, aiming to enhance the bank’s on-premises private cloud efficiency and security.
Asian Energy Services Limited secures a significant INR 250 Crore project from Central Coalfields Ltd for a Coal Handling Plant.
Petronet LNG Limited secures a long-term contract for 7.5 MMTPA LNG from QatarEnergy, extending the agreement till 2048.
Aether Industries Limited initiates execution of a 15 MW Solar Power Project with KPIG Energia Private Limited. Scheduled completion in FY 2024-25.
L&T Construction secures a significant project to build the Palashbari to Sualkuchi Cable Stayed Bridge in Assam, spanning 12.21 Km across the Brahmaputra River.
SJVN: Received a Letter of Intent for a 200 MW solar power project from Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam.
KEC International secured new orders worth Rs. 1,175 crores across Transmission & Distribution (T&D), Civil, and Solar businesses in India and the Americas.
Welspun Enterprises Limited has emerged as the L1 bidder for a Design Build and Operate Contract with Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation for a Water Treatment Plant, valued at ~Rs. 4,128 Crores.
PSP Projects Limited received new work orders totalling INR 935.41 Crores, including projects in Dharoi Dam, Gandhinagar, and Sabarmati Riverfront. The total order inflow for FY 2023-24 is INR 1995.70 Crores.
Ashoka Buildcon Limited has received a Letter of Award (LoA) from the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for the ‘Six-laning of Aurangabad to Bihar-Jharkhand Border (Chordaha)’ project under Bharatmala on EPC Mode, with a contract value of Rs. 520.00 Crore.
GPT Infraprojects Limited secures a 114 Crore contract from East Central Railway for construction work in Bihar, enhancing its diverse infrastructure presence. The outstanding order book is 3,047 Crore.
Servotech Power Systems signed a contract with Adani TotalEnergies E-Mobility for manufacturing and installing AC EV chargers, supporting India’s decarbonization goals and Adani’s vision of 75,000 EV charging stations by 2030.
DCX Systems Limited secures export orders valued at approximately US$ 55 million from international customers for the supply of Electronic Assemblies, to be executed by December 31, 2024.
Jyoti Structures Limited secures orders, including a Rs. 290 Crore EPC project for a 400 KV Multi-Circuit Transmission Line in Gujarat from Torrent PowerGrid Limited.
Solex Energy Limited received a work order from Aadhav Green Power Private Limited for a 43 MW Solar PV project valued at Rs. 68.5 Crores.
Inox Wind Limited announces a binding framework agreement with CESC Limited for India’s largest wind project, involving 1,500 MW capacity over 3-4 years. Inox Green Energy Services to provide O&M services.
Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments
Bajaj Finance: Enters into a Securities Subscription Agreement to acquire a 7% stake in RMBS Development Company.
Adani Total Gas has entered a mutual support agreement with Inox India to fortify the liquefied natural gas (LNG) ecosystem in India, enhancing collaboration in delivery services and equipment.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries establishes Taro Pharma Corporation, Inc. (USA) as a wholly-owned subsidiary.
Quess Corp. agreed to sell its subsidiary, Qdigi Services, to Onsitego for a total cash consideration of Rs 80 crore.
Zomato: Announces the liquidation of its step-down subsidiaries, Zomato Vietnam Company and Lunchtime.cz.
Inox India (INOXCVA): Inox India signs an MoU with Inter-University Accelerator Centre for superconducting magnet-based systems.
Indraprastha Gas: IGL signs an MOU for compressed biogas plants in four states and continues to expand its city gas distribution network.
TCS partners with Enento Group to modernize IT infrastructure and digital workplace in a multi-year collaboration, leveraging cloud and DevOps solutions for business agility and customer experience.
One 97 Communications (PayTM) to acquire interoperable e-commerce startup Bitsila, aiming to strengthen its presence in the digital commerce sector.
Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) signs an MoU with the Government of Uttarakhand for operating dedicated Bharat Gaurav tourist trains to Uttarakhand.
IREDA, India’s Renewable Energy Development Agency, has received RBI approval to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in GIFT City, Gujarat. This move aims to boost global presence and green financing solutions.
ASK Automotive Limited, Mumbai, plans to enter the High-Pressure Die Casted Two-Wheeler Alloy Wheels segment, partnering with LIOHO Machine Works Limited, Taiwan. The strategic agreement spans seven years.
PTC Industries Limited and HAL Accessories Division sign MoU for indigenization of Aviation Grade Raw Materials, Components, and more, supporting “Make in India” and “Atmanirbhar Bharat” programs.
Business Operations
Aurobindo Pharma: The US FDA inspects Unit-III, a formulation manufacturing facility of Eugia Pharma Specialities, with nine observations.
Zee Entertainment Enterprises: The Singapore International Arbitration Centre denies interim relief in the merger scheme case, filed by Culver Max and Bangla Entertainment, against Zee Entertainment Enterprises.
PayTM denies reports of any investigation or violation of foreign exchange rules, refuting the allegations as misleading, baseless, and harmful to stakeholders’ interests.
JK Cement’s subsidiaries, JK Maxx Paints and Acro Paints approve a Scheme of Amalgamation, signalling strategic moves within the company structure to enhance operational efficiency.
Indian Energy Exchange achieves its highest-ever total volumes in January, reaching 10,893 million units, marking a substantial 26.1% year-on-year growth.
Biocon received tentative approval for Dasatinib tablets from the US FDA for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia in adults.
Lupin received US FDA approval for its generic equivalent of BromSite ophthalmic solution.
Piramal Pharma: US FDA issues 3 observations after inspecting Piramal Pharma’s Riverview facility.
Zydus Lifesciences received final USFDA approval for manufacturing and marketing Dexamethasone Tablets in various strengths.
Suraj Estate Developers announces the launch of the “Suraj Lumina” residential project in Mumbai. The project includes 35 units, offering 2BHK and 3BHK configurations with amenities. Expected completion by December 2028.
Bharti Airtel strengthens its retail presence in Bhopal with five new stores, enhancing customer service and showcasing cutting-edge technologies. Airtel continues its retail expansion in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Key Buying and Selling Deals
Avalon Technologies Ltd: GOLDMAN SACHS FUNDS - GOLDMAN SACHS INDIA EQUITY PORTFOLIO sells ₹70.8Cr worth of Shares; HDFC MUTUAL FUND buys ₹67.8294Cr worth of Shares.
HFCL Limited: MN VENTURES PRIVATE LIMITED sells ₹73.5Cr worth of Shares
Jeena Sikho Lifecare Ltd: STALLION ASSET PRIVATE LIMITED buys ₹31.3Cr worth of Shares
Kalyan Jewellers Ind Ltd: GOLDMAN SACHS FUNDS - GOLDMAN SACHS INDIA EQUITY PORTFOLIO buys ₹195.2Cr worth of Shares; MOTILAL OSWAL MUTUAL FUND A/C MOTILAL OSWAL MIDCAP 30 FUND buys ₹617.3Cr worth of Shares; NOMURA FUNDS IRELAND PLC NOMURA FUNDS IRELAND INDIA EQUITY FUND buys ₹181.2 worth of Shares; THE MASTER TRUST BANK OF JAPAN LIMITED AC NOMURA INDIA INVESTMENT FUND MOTHER FUND buys ₹436.1Cr worth of Shares; HIGHDELL INVESTMENT LIMITED sells ₹2316Cr worth of Shares
Navin Fluorine: SMALLCAP WORLD FUND INC sells ₹158.2Cr worth of Shares
Paradeep Phosphates Ltd: GOLDMAN SACHS FUNDS - GOLDMAN SACHS INDIA EQUITY PORTFOLIO sells ₹56.8Cr worth of Shares
RattanIndia Power Limited: INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE LIMITED sells ₹51.2Cr worth of Shares
Steel Strips Wheels: SUNENA GARG sells ₹40Cr worth of Shares
Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd: HIMALAYA FINANCE AND INVESTMENT CO sells ₹38.07Cr worth of Shares; PIONEER INVESTMENT FUND SCHEME II buys ₹38.07Cr worth of Shares
Management Changes
SKF India’s Managing Director, Manish Bhatnagar, is appointed as the new President, Industrial Region Americas at SKF Group.
Bharat Seats sees the resignation of Chief Financial Officer Sanjeev Kumar, effective from February 8, 2024, following his transfer to the commercial department.
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