Weekly Market Analysis for March 04-07, 2024
A volatile week; AMFI and SEBI's warning for Mid Caps; India's GDP soaring; Busy IPO Market and much more...
What happened last week?
Nifty was up 0.75% in what was a volatile week. Nifty went down 300 points at the start of the week before shooting up 500 points to close at an all-time high of 22378. In the last 3 weeks, although the price went below 22000 on multiple days, it has not closed below 22000 in the weekly chart. Bulls in control.
Metals & Auto were the top performers last week. Media and IT stocks were down.
At the start of the week there was a sharp sell-off in the mid-cap and small-cap space. This was after the AMFI (Mutual Fund Association) suggested Fund Managers implement Investor Protection measures for small and mid-cap investments on concerns of a potential market bubble. SEBI had also given out a warning. The Mid Cap Index was down 0.6% last week.
Apart from India, both Japan and US markets continue to do well. Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Nikkei all are at record highs.
India’s GDP Growth data was released last week and it was way above expectations. GDP grew 8.4% in Q3 FY24 (Oct-Dec) period on the back of higher private consumption and strong manufacturing and construction activity. The government raised its GDP growth outlook for FY 2023-24 to 7.6% from 7.3% forecast earlier.
Let us now dive deeper into FII DII Data.
FII Positions Analysis
FIIs were sellers during the first half of the week and buyers in the second half. FII selling was ₹58 Crores in the cash market.
DIIs bought ₹8223 Crores in the cash market leading the current rally. It is important to watch their derivatives positions as they lead this rally.
Although DIIs increased their hedges at the start of the week, they have reduced them towards the end of the week. Their hedges are relatively low as well. DII positions indicate that they are still not ready to sell.
FIIs still carry short positions going into March. But they have cut down their shorts by half post February monthly expiry. They have increased their longs in the Stock Derivatives segment as well.
Overall, FIIs are not as Bearish as they were last week. DIIs are bullish and spearheading this rally.
FII Positions | Finvezto Toolkit
Nifty & BankNifty Analysis
Nifty: Both Price and Max Pain were up last week indicating bullishness.
Banknifty: Both Price and Max Pain were up last week indicating bullishness. But Max Pain has still not shot up above 47000. If it shoots up in the coming week, there can be a significant move on the upside.
Key Upcoming Events
Monday (March 4)
RK Swamy IPO subscription opens
Tuesday (March 5)
Gopal Snacks IPO subscription opens
JG Chemicals IPO subscription opens
India Composite PMI and Services PMI Data
Friday (March 8)
Market Holiday
Key Stock Announcements last week
All my notes on major stock announcements last week are arranged date-wise below. Please check the respective note below to view all updates.
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