Finvezto Compass: Weekly Analysis

Weekly Market Analysis for Jan 06 to 10, 2025

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 05 Jan 2025 04:36:36 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed last week at 24004, up 0.8% over the previous week.

It was a very volatile week with price recording a higher high and also a lower low than the previous week.

Although price ended up higher, Nifty is still in the correction phase in the Weekly timeframe.

Sentiment Analysis

FIIs sold -11041 Cr and DIIs bought 9253 Crs last week.

FIIs continue selling spree. Not surprising though. Their derivatives positions suggest that they might continue to be net sellers.

Source: NSE, Finvezto Toolkit

FIIs have increased their short positions on Index Derivatives last week.

FII Index Sentiment continues to be Bearish. Props (Proprietary Traders) also continue to maintain their shorts. Since the second half of December both FII & Props have remained short.

Why are we interested in tracking FII & Prop?

Because they are the ones who end up being profitable. Not just that, the correlation of Index movement with their positions is high.

Source: NSE, Finvezto Toolkit

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Although Weekly Max Pain was very volatile, Monthly Max Pain remained stable at 24000.

There was a strong upmove propelled by Auto Stocks on Expiry day last week. But Positional Traders were unfazed. They maintained their positions.

Positional Traders maintain a neutral view that Nifty will circle around 24000. This view might change. But that will be visible as they change their positions which will eventually be reflected in the Max Pain. For now, they are neutral. That is the evidence we have and we will rely on it. We won’t forecast.

There is no clear Nifty Sentiment for this week based on Max Pain. Better to stay neutral or stay away.

Note: When the blue line and pink line below start moving up together, we will turn bullish. If they tread down together, we will stay Bearish.

Highlights from Last Week

Please check out Finvezto Bytes and Daily Notes for all highlights from last week. Adding key highlights below.

Key Upcoming Events

January 6 (Monday)

India Services PMI Final December

January 7 (Tuesday)

India GDP Growth Preliminary Data

January 9 (Thursday)

US FOMC Minutes

January 10 (Friday)

India Industrial Production November

At Finvezto Stock Research, we offer the following services.

Disclaimer: Anand Ganapathy K is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst with SEBI registration number INH000016630. This weekly update highlights market trends and upcoming events for your awareness. It does not recommend buying or selling stocks mentioned in this newsletter. Securities market investments carry market risks. Kindly review all related documents before investing.

Weekly Market Analysis for Dec 30, 2024 to Jan 03, 2025

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 29 Dec 2024 03:45:53 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed last week at 23813.4, up 1% over the previous week.

Last week the volumes traded were 60% of the yearly average as it was a holiday week.

India VIX dropped 10% last week indicating reduced expectations of volatility.

We have come to the end of 2024 and this is how different asset classes performed. Mid Caps and Small Caps end up on top for the second consecutive year.

FIIs sold -6322 Cr and DIIs bought 10927 Crs last week.

In 2024, FIIs sold 2,85,181 Cr and DIIs bought a whopping 5 lac Crores.

FIIs have reduced their shorts throughout last week. But they are still net short.

FIIs are slowly starting to add longs in stock derivatives. Overall, FIIs are not as Bearish as they were the previous week.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Weekly and Monthly Max Pain both remained mostly flat last week. The sentiment continues to remain neutral to Bearish.

Note: When the blue line and pink line below start moving up together, we will turn bullish. If they tread down together, we will stay Bearish.

Key Upcoming Events

December 30:

IPO Listing: Ventive Hospitality, Senores Pharmaceuticals, Carraro India

December 31:

IPO Listing: Unimech Aerospace and Manufacturing

January 3:

US Manufacturing PMI

Quick Recap of Last week

Please check out our daily market bytes for a quick recap of last week’s action and Key Stock Announcements.

At Finvezto Stock Research, we offer the following services.

Weekly Market Analysis for December 23 to 27, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 22 Dec 2024 03:45:37 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed last week at 23587.5, down 4.8% over the previous week.

The previous 4 weeks’ recovery was erased last week. Nifty is again back to a 10% drawdown.

Last week’s fall can primarily be attributed to the US Fed’s hawkish stance and reduced number of rate cuts in 2025.

Broader market indices (Midcap/SmallCap) fell by 2% on Friday. But on a weekly basis they did not fall as much as Nifty 50. Small Caps are still only at 5% drawdown compared to Nifty’s 10%.

Large caps have fallen more in the recent times than Small Caps. This is primarily due to Banks & Financial services taking a big hit last week, down by about 5%.

At an industry level, EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Services) continued their good momentum even on a down week for most Indices. Hospitals industry also closed in green for the week. Good to keep a tab on industries that show strength even in tough times.

FIIs sold -15828 Cr and DIIs bought 11873 Crs.

No surprises here. FIIs had heavy short positions thrroughout the week.

FIIs have significantly increased their shorts as shown below.

They have also reduced their longs in Index Derivatives. FII sentiment is very Bearish.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Weekly and Monthly Max Pain both started falling from the start of last week. There was no reason to be bullish last week. However, on Friday the weekly max pain stayed near 24000 despite the fall. GIFT Nifty also inched higher after Friday’s negative close.

Note: When the blue line and pink line below start moving up together, we will turn bullish. If they tread down together, we will stay Bearish.

What else happened last week?

Note: Click on the links above to read more about them in our research platform.

Key Upcoming Events

December 23

- Unimech Aerospace IPO Opens

December 26

- US Initial Jobless Claims Data

December 27

- India Foreign Exchange Reserves Data

Key Stock Announcements from Last week

You can check all the most important Stock Announcements from last week in Finvezto Daily Market Bytes series.

At Finvezto Stock Research, we offer the following services.

Weekly Market Analysis for December 16 to 20, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 05:10:19 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed last week at 24768, up 0.9% over the previous week.

Nifty made a higher low last week but did not make a higher high. This indicates a pause in the recovery.

24870 is the key level to watch in the coming week. If price breaks 24870 on the upside, the uptrend might continue further.

Broader market Indices (Next 50, Midcap, Smallcap) mostly ended the week in red.

IT large caps, Railways, Textiles, EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Services) continued their good momentum.

FIIs sold ₹226 Cr and DIIs bought ₹2880 Cr in the cash market last week.

FIIs have significantly reduced their shorts on Index Derivatives from previous week.

They have also added longs on Stock Derivatives. FII sentiment is Bullish.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Weekly and Monthly Max Pain remained largely unchanged last week.

Nifty Sentiment in the short term is more on on Neutral to Bullish side.

Note: When the blue line and pink line below start moving up together, we will turn bullish. If they tread down together, we will stay Bearish.

What else happened last week?

Note: Click on the links above to read more about them in our research platform.

Key Upcoming Events

December 16 (Monday):

India Manufacturing PMI Flash
India WPI Inflation

December 19 (Thursday):

US Fed Policy
BoJ Interest Rate Decision

Key Stock Announcements from Last week

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

At Finvezto Stock Research, we offer the following services.

Weekly Market Analysis for December 9 to 13, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 08 Dec 2024 02:39:01 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed last week at 24677, up 2.3% over the previous week.

Nifty made a higher high and a higher low for the second straight week indicating recovery.

Broader market Indices (Midcap, Smallcap) shot up by 3.5%.

FIIs bought ₹11933 Cr and DIIs bought ₹1792 Cr in the cash market last week.

FIIs have particularly bought the Index Heavy weights over the last 3 weeks. All major sectors contributed to the rally, with Banking & IT emerging as top gainers

FIIs have slightly reduced their shorts on Index Derivatives from previous week. But, they have added shorts over the last 2 trading days.

FIIs continue to hold longs in Stock Derivatives.

Overall, FII derivative positions indicate that they are neither aggressively Bullish or Bearish based on their Derivatives positions.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Weekly Max Pain shot up continuously for the last 5 days. There was no reason to go short last week.

However, Monthly Max Pain however remained flat indicating that Positional Traders are not that bullish.

Selling PUTs with a hedge would have been a good option in this type of market.

Note: When the blue line and pink line below start moving up together, we will turn bullish. If they tread down together, we will stay Bearish.

What else happened last week?

RBI maintains 6.5% repo rate while cutting CRR to 4% showing balanced approach towards growth and inflation. 50 basis points CRR cut is aimed at releasing liquidity while maintaining monetary stability.

RBI also reduced the Growth forecast for FY25 to 6.6% from 7.2%. This marks first projection below 7% in FY 2025. Inflation outlook raised to 4.8% from 4%. RBI is acknowledging that economic challenges do exist.

For a quick round up of other highlights from last week, do check out Finvezto Market Bytes.

Key Upcoming Events

December 11

US Inflation Data

December 12

India CPI Inflation Data
India Industrial Production Data

Key Stock Announcements

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

At Finvezto Stock Research, we offer the following services.

Weekly Market Analysis for December 2 to 6, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 01 Dec 2024 03:00:33 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed the week at 24131, up 0.9% from last week.

After 8 weeks, it has made a higher high and a higher low. The first signs of a possible reversal.

We witnessed a postive start to the week driven by the victory of BJP Led Alliance in Maharashtra state assembly.

Banking stocks led the gains; HDFC Bank hit a record high. Most sectors ended in green.

FIIs sold ₹-5,026.77 Cr and DIIs bought ₹6,924.78 Cr in the cash market last week. FIIs sold ₹45,000 crore in November following heavy outflows of ₹1.14 lakh crore in October.

After 38 days of continuous selling, FII/FPIs turned net buyers with +₹9947 Cr on Monday. Much of this activity was concentrated in HDFC Bank, driven by an increase in its Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) and MSCI Rebalancing rather than a strucural FPI shift. More details here.

FIIs have increased their shorts on Index Derivatives compared to previous week.

This indicates that they might continue to remain net sellers at the Index level.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Both Weekly and Monthly Max Pain of Nifty have inched slightly upwards. The sentiment is not as negative as it was 2 weeks back. Positional Traders have added long positions throughout the week.

Whenever the blue and the pink lines move upwards together we will turn bullish and when they move downwards together we will turn bearish. You can check more details here.

What else happened?

Adani group stocks rose late in the week after clarification that Gautam Adani, Vineet Jain and Sagar Adani weren't charged under the FCPA.
Gold prices have breached ₹80,000 per 10 grams in several cities in India.
NSE has announced revision in expiry days of monthly contracts for BANKNIFTY, FINNIFTY, MIDCPNIFTY, and NIFTYNXT50, standardizing them to last Thursday of expiry month.
SEBI has mandated NSE and BSE to serve as backup trading platforms for each other during technical outages, ensuring continuous market operations and protecting investor interests during disruptions.

Key Upcoming Events

December 2 (Monday):

- India Manufacturing PMI Data

December 4 (Wednesday):

- India Services PMI Data

December 6 (Friday):

- RBI Interest Rate Decision

- India Foreign Exchange Reserves Data

Key Stock Announcements

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for November 25 to 29, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 24 Nov 2024 02:41:47 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed the week at 23907, up by 1.6% from previous week.

Last week Nifty tested the close of Election Results week (June 1st week) at 23300, but bounced back quickly from there.

Despite the bribery and fraud charges on Adani Group, the market bounced back on Friday.

But still, Nifty formed a lower high and lower low pattern in the weekly chart. From Price action point of view we are still in a downtrend in the weekly timeframe.

FIIs sold -11,414.18 Cr and DIIs bought +11,036.76 Cr in the cash market last week.

FIIs have reduced their shorts on Index Derivatives. FIIs have also gone long on Stock Derivatives. FIIs are not as Bearish as they were in the previous weeks.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Both Weekly and Monthly Max Pain went up on Friday. Sentiment has reversed.

We will follow the direction of the blue and pink lines below. They should be moving in the same direction. Whichever direction it is, we will go along with it.

What else happened?

BJP led Mahayuti alliance has scripted a landslide victory in Maharashtra while the INDIA bloc retained Jharkhand in the Assembly polls 2024.
US Markets bounced back by 1.7% last week. China and HongKong continue to fall.
Bitcoin’s value surged, nearing the $100,000 mark, with a record high of $98,372 observed during the week.
Gold and Silver prices continue to surge. Gold up 5.7% last week.

Key Upcoming Events

November 27 (Wednesday):

- US FOMC Minutes

- US Initial Jobless Claims

November 29 (Friday):

- India GDP Growth Rate

Key Stock Announcements

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for November 18 to 22, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 17 Nov 2024 04:01:30 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed the week at 23532, down 2.8% from last week. It has now fallen 10.2% from the peak it made in September.

Nifty made lower highs and lower lows last week, indicating that it is still in a downtrend.

Midcaps, SmallCaps and Microcaps fell 5-6%. Almost all sectors except IT closed in deep red.

On the Global Front…

Most markets ended the week in the red. The US market fell by 1.7%, while China and Hong Kong experienced substantial declines.

FIIs sold ₹9683 Cr and DIIs bought ₹12508 Cr in the cash market last week.

FIIs continue to hold net shorts on Index Derivatives.

Looks like FIIs aren’t done selling in the cash market yet. They have now sold for 34 consecutive days in the cash market. I do not remember a longer streak. Since late September, they have sold ₹1.5 lac crores.

FIIs have also reduced their longs in Stock Derivatives. FII Sentiment continues to be Bearish.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Both Weekly and Monthly Max Pain went down together last week indicating Bearish Sentiment.

Note: We will turn bullish only when the blue and pink lines above start moving up together. If they tread down together, we will stay Bearish.

Key Upcoming Events

November 18 (Monday):

- G20 Summit

November 19 (Tuesday):

- IPO: NTPC Green Energy

November 20 (Wednesday):

- Market Holiday

November 22 (Friday):

- India Manufacturing PMI

- India Services PMI

Key Stock Announcements

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

Management Changes:

Norton Motorcycle’s CEO, Dr. Robert Hentschel steps down.

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for November 11 to 15, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 10 Nov 2024 03:05:16 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed the week at 24148, down 0.6% from last week. It made a lower low, indicating that it is still in a downtrend.

On the Global Front…

The U.S. stock market experienced a significant rally.

The S&P 500 saw its best post-election day performance in history, climbing 2.5%.

The US market reacted positively to expectations of pro-growth policies under Mr. Trump, which could include lower corporate taxes and reduced regulations.

The US Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in its key interest rate, reducing it to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. This marks the second rate cut of the year, following a larger 50 basis point reduction in September.

FIIs sold ₹19637 Cr and DIIs bought ₹14391 Cr in the cash market last week.

FIIs have increased their shorts on Index Derivatives. FIIs have also reduced their longs in Stock Derivatives.

Looks like FIIs are not done with their selling spree yet. FII Sentiment continues to be Bearish.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Both Weekly and Monthly Max Pain remained flat last week as indicated in the chart below.

Despite the volatility, the Monthly Max Pain has not gone below 24500. This indicates that Positional Traders are not expecting a further fall as per their current positions. But sentiments could change. We need to keep track of it everyday.

When the blue line and pink line below start moving up together, we will turn bullish. If they tread down together, we will stay Bearish. Simple.

Key Upcoming Events

November 12 (Tuesday):

India Industrial Production
India Manufacturing Production
India CPI Inflation Rate MoM

November 13 (Wednesday):

US Inflation Rate

Key Stock Announcements

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

Management Changes:

Navkar Corporation appoints Arun Sharma as Chief Executive Officer.

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for November 04 - 08, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 03 Nov 2024 04:02:11 GMT

A Quick Update

We launched Finvezto Stock Research on Diwali. Our special Launch price and Diwali offer ends today (Nov 03). If you are looking for unbiased and evidence-based research services to power your investing/trading research, do consider subscribing. It includes:

More details below:

What happened last week?

Nifty closed the week at 24304, up 0.6% from the previous week. The downtrend has paused but not ended.

FIIs sold ₹14415 Cr and DIIs bought ₹9786 Cr in the cash market last week. On Muhurat day, both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers.

In October, FIIs sold ₹114415 Crores in the cash market bringing broad market indices down by about 6-10%. It is their highest ever selling in a month.

FIIs continue to hold shorts on Index Derivatives.

Looks like FIIs are not yet done with their selling spree.

However, FIIs have added longs in Stock Derivatives. FII Index Sentiment continues to be Bearish, but the stock-specific sentiment seems to be changing.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Although the Nifty Weekly Max Pain has been falling, the Monthly Max Pain seems to be consolidating.

Currently, it is better to stay neutral in the short term. There is no clear direction.

However, it is important to note that the downtrend has just paused. There is no evidence that it has ended.

Only when the blue and pink lines in the below go up together will we turn bullish.

Key Upcoming Events

November 4 (Monday):

- India Manufacturing PMI Final

November 5 (Tuesday):

- US Presidential Elections

- China Services PMI

November 6 (Wednesday):

- Swiggy IPO

- India Services PMI Final

November 8 (Friday):

- Fed Interest Rate Decision

What’s happening in Stocks?

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

Management Changes:

Castrol India appoints Kedar Lele as Managing Director.

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for October 28-Nov 01, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 27 Oct 2024 04:44:28 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed the week at 24180 down by 2.7% from the previous week.

Nifty has fallen 7% in the last 1 month.

It has formed lower highs and lower lows in the weekly chart for the 4th consecutive week.

It has also closed below the 24800-24900 zone.

Nifty is in a downtrend.

On the global front…

US Nasdaq and Chinese markets ended the week on a positive note.

India continued to underperform primarily due to continued FII selling.

On the sectoral front…

all indices closed in red last week. Realty, Auto, Media and Metals were tanked 7-10%.

FIIs sold ₹20000Cr in the cash market last week.

FIIs have sold ₹1 Lac Crores so far in October. It's the highest ever amount sold by FIIs in a month.

DIIs, on the other hand, bought ₹22000 Cr last week. DIIs have bought 97000 Cr in October.

FIIs continue to hold shorts on Index Derivatives.

But they are slowly starting to add more longs in Stock Derivatives. FII Index Sentiment continues to be Bearish, but the stock-specific sentiment seems to be changing.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Both Weekly and Monthly Max Pain of Nifty have been on the decline. Sentiment is Bearish.

Monthly Max Pain (Pink Line) has been going down since the start of October. Not once did it go up even for a day in October. You should have stayed short in October.

Only when the blue and pink lines go up together will we turn bullish. Till then we will stay Bearish.

Key Upcoming Events

October 28 (Monday):

- IPO Listing: Waaree Energies, Deepak Builders & Engineers

- Q2 Results: Bharti Airtel, IOC, Sun Pharma

October 29 (Tuesday):

- Q2 Results: Cipla, Maruti Suzuki

October 30 (Wednesday):

- Q2 Results: Dabur, L&T

- IPO Listing: Godavari Biorefineries

- US GDP Data

October 31 (Thursday):

- Japan Interest Rate Decision

November 1 (Friday):

- India Final Manufacturing PMI

- Market Holiday (Diwali Laxmi Puja)

Key Stock Announcements Last week

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

Management Changes:

Star Cement CEO Vinit Kumar Tiwari resigns for personal reasons.

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for October 21-25, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:37:37 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed at 24854, down by 0.5% last week.

Nifty made a low of 24567 but bounced back to close above the 24850 zone.

Although it closed above the 24850 zone, Nifty has formed lower highs and lower lows over the last four weeks and is still in a downtrend.

We can expect a further fall if there is a close in the weekly chart below the 24850 zone.

If there is a close above 25290 on the upside in the weekly chart, we can expect the next up move.

On the global front…

India and Asian markets were down. India has been the underperformer over the last month primarily due to FII Outflows.

On the sectoral front…

Banks and Financial Services made a comeback last week, helping the Nifty close above the 24850 zone.

The Auto sector experienced a significant downturn (-5%), with major players like Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and Maruti Suzuki seeing sharp declines.

Bajaj Auto tanked almost 10% in a session.

Bajaj Auto's management provided a cautious outlook for the upcoming festive season, predicting only a 1-2% increase in motorcycle sales. This forecast was significantly below expectations of 5-6% growth, raising concerns about consumer demand during one of the busiest sales periods of the year.

FIIs sold ₹21823 Cr in the cash market last week.

FIIs have sold ₹80000 Crores so far in October. It's the highest ever amount sold by FIIs in a month.

DIIs on the other hand bought ₹16384 Cr last week.

FIIs continue to hold shorts on Index Derivatives. They have also not added significant longs in Stock Derivatives. FIIs are still Bearish.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

Both Weekly and Monthly Max Pain of Nifty have been on the decline. Sentiment is Bearish.

Only when the blue line and pink line go up together we will turn bullish.

Key Upcoming Events

October 21 (Monday):

- Q2 Earnings: Bajaj Housing Finance, UltraTech Cement Ltd.

October 22 (Tuesday):

- Q2 Earnings: Adani Energy, Bajaj Finance, Varun Beverages, Zomato

October 23 (Wednesday):

- Q2 Earnings: HUL, Pidilite, SBI, TVS Motors

October 24 (Thursday):

- Q2 Earnings: Adani Total Gas, Colgate, Godrej Consumer, ITC

- India Services PMI

- India Manufacturing PMI

October 25 (Friday):

- Q2 Earnings: Bank of Baroda, Bharat Electronics, Interglobe Aviation

Key Stock Announcements Last week

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

The rest of the information will be delivered through Dalal Street Breakfast on every market day at 8 AM. Check it out here!

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for October 14-18, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sat, 12 Oct 2024 05:14:55 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty traded with high volatility before closing last week at 24964.

It neither closed below 24870 nor above 25290.

Nifty did go below 24870, but for a short time only. This is indicative of aggressive buying around the zone. If there is a weekly close below 24870 zone, we can expect a further fall.

On the global front…

US and Japan were up by 2+%. China was down about 3%.

Some of you have asked how to buy the Chinese market. You can do so through the ETFs or Mutual Funds below from India. But I would not recommend buying China for the long term. High regulatory controls. Not that it won’t go up. But there are better places to invest if you want international exposure.

On the sectoral front…

IT and Pharma did well. They have been the best performers over the last three months.

FMCG and Energy were down by 2-3%.

FIIs sold ₹27674 Cr in the cash market last week.

FIIs sold ₹40500 Cr the previous week.

DIIs on the other hand bought ₹31363 Cr last week.

FIIs are still holding short positions in Index Derivatives and have closed down some more long positions in Stock Derivatives. FII sentiment is Bearish.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

If you look at the Weekly and Monthly Max Pain trend of Nifty below…

Both have been flat over last week. Participants were neither bullish nor bearish last week. We need to wait till the blue and the pink lines below start moving in a certain direction to take a directional view.

Key Upcoming Events

October 14 (Monday):

- India CPI Inflation Rate

- India WPI Inflation Rate

October 15 (Tuesday):

- Hyundai Motor IPO

October 18 (Friday):

- Chinese GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3

Key Stock Announcements Last week

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

The rest of the information will be delivered through Dalal Street Breakfast on every market day at 8 AM. Check it out here!

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for October 07-11, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 06 Oct 2024 04:53:32 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty erased all its gains in September in just the first 4 days of October, courtesy of FIIs.

FIIs sold a whopping ₹40500 Cr last week. Many reasons could have triggered this sell-off. I have listed the below.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East
Crude Oil prices surging 10%
Funds possibly moving to China post-stimulus announcement
Recent F&O changes by SEBI ?!?! I don’t think so.

Nifty was down ~4.5% and closed at 25014 near the week’s low. 24850 to 24900 is the key zone to watch out on the downside. If that is broken, we might see a further fall towards 24300.

On the global front…

The Chinese market continues to surge after the Stimulus announcements. Shanghai Market was up 21% and HongKong was up 14% last week.

The US and Europe markets ended flat.

On the sectoral front…

All sectors closed in red except Metals.

Let us dive deeper into FII data…

FIIs sold ₹40500 Cr in the cash market last week. They bought ₹26000 Cr in the previous 2 weeks. They have sold all of that and more in the last 4 days.

FIIs are holding short positions in Index Derivatives and have significantly closed down their long positions in Stock Derivatives. FII sentiment is Bearish.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

If you look at the Weekly and Monthly Max Pain trend of Nifty below…

Weekly Max Pain has been down since Monday. As mentioned last week, it would have been good to close any previous long positions on Monday.

Both Weekly and Monthly Max Pain went down on Thursday and Friday. Nifty Sentiment is currently Bearish.

Key Upcoming Events

Q2 FY24 results season kickstarts this week with TCS Results. US Fed will be releasing its meeting minutes. The new RBI Committee will also be meeting this week to decide on Interest Rates.

October 9 (Wednesday):

- India RBI Interest Rate Decision

- US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes

October 10 (Thursday):

- Results: Tata Consultancy Services

- US Inflation Data

October 11 (Friday):

- India Industrial Production

Key Stock Announcements Last week

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

The rest of the information will be delivered through Dalal Street Breakfast on every market day at 8 AM. Check it out here!

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for Sep 30-Oct 04, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 29 Sep 2024 04:57:40 GMT

What happened last week?

After opening, Nifty tested the previous week's high of 25840 and from there it shot up to 26277 recording a new all-time high.

Nifty Closed the September expiry series with a 4.6% gain.

On the global front…

Most markets closed in green except London.

Chinese market surged due to government stimulus measures targeting interest rate reduction and adjustment to mortgage policies to boost consumer spending.

On the sectoral front…

All sectors closed in green. Metals, Auto, Energy and Realty shot up significantly. Media continues to underperform.

Let us dive deeper into FII DII data…

FIIs sold -3932 Cr and DIIs bought ₹15961 Cr in the cash market last week.

FIIs and DIIs have pumped in ~₹25000 Cr each in September alone.

FIIs have also increased their long positions in both Index and Stock Derivatives. FII sentiment continues to be bullish.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

If you look at the Weekly and Monthly Max Pain trend of Nifty below,

Positional Traders have not added aggressive longs after the price reached 26000. They have not closed their existing longs either. If the blue line and pink line below continue to go up, we will remain bullish. If the blue line and pink line move down together, we will turn Bearish.

If you have been long over the last couple of weeks, it might be good to book partial profits. However, it is not time to short now as yet. We need to wait for more evidence.

Key Stock Announcements Last week

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

Management Changes:

Key Upcoming Events

September 30 (Monday):

UK GDP Growth Rate
India Infrastructure Output
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

October 1 (Tuesday):

India Manufacturing PMI

October 4 (Friday):

India Foreign Exchange Reserves
US Unemployment Rate

The rest of the information will be delivered through Dalal Street Breakfast on every market day at 8 AM. Check it out here!

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for Sep 23-27, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 22 Sep 2024 04:15:41 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty made a new all-time high of 25849 on Friday before closing at 25790.

In the previous 3 weeks, Nifty witnessed resistance around the 25300 to 25400 zone. Last week it took that zone as support and shot up. 25300 to 25400 will be a critical zone on the downside.

On the global front…

Most markets closed in green.

US Markets ended higher.

The Federal Reserve (FED) lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, from 5.25-5.5% to 4.75-5%, the first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell also hinted at further rate cuts in the coming months, suggesting a more accommodative monetary policy stance.

On the sectoral front…

Banks, Financial Services and Realty were up significantly. Big money has been going into Large Caps and Financial Services in September.

FIIs have favoured Financials, Healthcare and Realty in the last 15 days.

Let us now dive deeper into FII DII data.

FIIs bought ₹11517 Cr and DIIs sold ₹633 Cr in the cash market. FIIs have almost bought ₹30000 Crores in September so far.

FIIs have added longs in both Index and Stock Derivatives. FII sentiment is Bullish.

DIIs have been holding significant Index hedges over the last 3 weeks. They are still being cautious.

Nifty Sentiment Analysis…

If you look at the Weekly and Monthly Max Pain trend of Nifty below,

Positional Traders have added longs since 13 September. Both Weekly and Monthly Max Pain have shot up from last week. Participants continue to be Bullish.

Let us look at some India-specific developments.

India’s WPI Inflation by 1.31% YoY in August 2024, easing from a 2.04% gain in July. Fuel prices fell for the first time in five months.
Total passenger vehicle sales in India shrank 1.6% from a year earlier to 308,779 in August 2024.

Key Stock Announcements Last week

Note: All the news items below include only the core business activities.

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

Key Upcoming Events

September 23 (Monday):

India Manufacturing PMI Flash

September 24 (Tuesday):

Japan Manufacturing PMI Flash

September 26 (Thursday):

BoJ (Japan) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The rest of the information will be delivered through Dalal Street Breakfast on every market day at 8 AM. Check it out here!

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for Sep 16-20, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 15 Sep 2024 03:14:38 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty rebounded from the 24870 zone last week and made a new all-time high of 25433 before closing at 25356.

24870 zone proves important again and FIIs have also bought significantly at these levels.

On the global front…

Most markets closed the week in green except certain Asian markets.

US Markets shot up by 2-3%. The US Fed chair is expected to cut rates in the coming week’s announcement.

Oil Prices have declined to an 18-month low which is also a positive for the markets.

On the sectoral front…

Consumption, FMCG and Pharma continue to do well.

The Pharma sector is witnessing tailwinds. The US House of Representatives passed the BioSecure Act restricting business with Chinese biotech firms, potentially benefiting Indian players. The GST council's decision to reduce the GST rate on cancer drugs from 12% to 5% is another positive.

Paint Stocks are benefitting from the continued decline in oil prices. Asian Paints has shot up almost 10% in the recent weeks. Asian paints had witnessed significant institutional activity last month.

Let us now dive deeper into FII DII data.

FIIs bought 15780 Crores and DIIs bought for 1863 Crores in the cash market.

FIIs have maintained long positions in Index Derivatives throughout the week. They have also added long positions in Stock Derivatives. Overall FII Sentiment is Bullish. DIIs continue to hold significant short positions on the Index and are heavily hedged.

What is Nifty up to?

After spending multiple days around 24950, Nifty Max Pain shot up on the last 2 days of the week. Currently, Sentiment is Bullish.

If you look at the Monthly Max Pain trend of Nifty below,

Positional Traders have largely maintained their view that Nifty is likely to trade around 25000. They weren’t excited when Nifty shot up to 25300 for the first time nor did they panic when Nifty went below 24870. They have not changed their view despite Nifty’s wild swings over the last 2 weeks. On Friday, they have added some longs.

Overall, the sentiment is Bullish going into next week. But remember, sentiments change quickly and you need to keep track of them regularly if you are trading in the short term.

Let us look at some India-specific developments.

India's CPI inflation rate stood at 3.65% in August 2024, which was the lowest since August 2019. It is the second consecutive month that inflation has stayed below the RBI’s target of 4% in five years.
India's Industrial output rose by 4.8% YoY in July 2024, following a 4.2% growth in June 2024. Manufacturing output which accounts for nearly 78% of total industrial production, expanded by 4.6% with notable growth for electrical equipment (+28.3%), fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment (+11%) and other transport equipment (+25.5%).

Key Stock Announcements Last week

Note: All the news items below include only the core business activities.

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

Key Upcoming Events

September 16 (Monday):

India Wholesale Price Inflation Data

September 17 (Tuesday):

US Retail Sales Data

September 18 (Wednesday):

US Interest Rate Decision

September 19 (Thursday):

UK Interest Rate Decision

September 20 (Friday):

Japan Interest Rate Decision

The rest of the information will be delivered through Dalal Street Breakfast on every market day at 8 AM. Check it out here!

All data points above are taken from Finvezto Toolkit. Take a Trial of Finvezto Toolkit for 7 Days here.

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for Sep 09-13, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 08 Sep 2024 03:51:23 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty opened the week higher at 25333, but it dropped by almost 500 points to close at 24852.

Nifty witnessed a sharp selling after a 14-day rally. Surprisingly both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers last week. Even on Friday fall, FIIs did not sell significantly and DIIs bought.

As I mentioned in earlier weeks, the 24870 zone is key. It has acted as support and resistance multiple times. If the price goes below the 24870 zone, we might see a fall towards 24300.

On the sectoral front…

FMCG and Pharma continued steady performance indicating their defensive nature.

Also, crude oil prices are falling, benefitting sectors such as Paints, OMCs, Pharma, Tyres etc.

PSU Banks sink another 4% last week.

On the global front…
all markets closed in red.

Nasdaq was down by 4.7% due to a sharp drop in NVIDIA.

The US showed weak jobs data. Also, with the upcoming Fed Policies and US Elections, there seems to be uncertainty.

Japan plunged 5%.

Let us now dive deeper into FII DII data.

FIIs bought ₹2430 Cr and DIIs bought ₹7442 Cr in the cash market.

FIIs have turned bearish last week. They have short positions in Index Derivatives and have significantly reduced their longs in Stock Derivatives.

DIIs have increased their hedges significantly. They seem to be extremely cautious. They added to their hedges despite Friday’s fall. So, they are expecting a further fall.

Participant’s View on Nifty in the Short Term…

Nifty Price and Max Pain started falling on Sep 4 much before the big fall on Sep 6. That was an indication to exit longs. Nifty is Bearish in the short term.

If you look at the Monthly Max Pain trend of Nifty below,
you can see that Max Pain (pink line) has remained stable. Positional traders still think price will trade around 25000 for a while. They have neither become bullish nor bearish in recent days. They are holding on.

Let us look at key India-specific developments.

India's Manufacturing PMI fell to 57.5 in August 2024. Manufacturing sector saw slower but robust growth in orders and output.
India's Services PMI reached a five-month high of 60.9 in August 2024, marking 38 straight months of growth driven by increased new business, productivity gains, and strong demand.

Key Stock Announcements Last week

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

Key Upcoming Events

September 11 (Wednesday):

US Inflation Rate Data

September 12 (Thursday):

India Industrial Production
India Manufacturing Production
India CPI Inflation Rate
ECB Interest Rate Decision

The rest of the information will be delivered through Dalal Street Breakfast (Pre- Market Report) on every market day at 8 AM. Check it out here!

All the charts and data points are taken from Finvezto Toolkit. Try it for free for 7 Days here.

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for Sep 02-06, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 01 Sep 2024 04:09:41 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty reached a new all-time high of 25268 and closed the week near the high at 25235.

24870 level which acted as resistance in the prior weeks turned into support last week. It is the most important level to watch out for. We will stay bullish on Nifty as long as 24870 holds.

On the sectoral front…

IT and Pharma Stocks continued their good run following the announcement of a rate cut by US FED.

PSU Banks continue to fall. Almost 13% down in the last 3 months. Private Banks have not done well either. Nifty might reach further highs if Banks participate.

On the global front…
most markets closed higher by 1% or more last week.

Let us now dive deeper into FII DII data.

FIIs bought ₹9217 Cr and DIIs bought ₹1198 Cr in the cash market. FIIs propelled last week’s rally.

FIIs have added long positions in both Index Derivatives and Stock Derivatives. FIIs are bullish.

DIIs have reduced their hedges post US FED event and Reliance AGM. They are not as cautious as they were last week. Proprietary Traders are also closed the week with long positions.

Overall, FIIs are Bullish, DIIs are not worried and Props are Bullish.

What is Nifty up to?

Nifty has been bullish since Aug 16. It is one of the longest streaks where both price and max pain have either closed higher or at the same level.

And it still looks good. We will stay bullish as long as both Price (black line) and Max Pain (blue line) are inching upwards.

If you look at the Monthly Max Pain trend of Nifty below,
you can see that Max Pain (pink line) has steadily increased. However it has settled at 25000 over the last 3 trading days. Positional Traders havent shown excitement for a new rally yet.

Overall, Nifty is Bullish. No signs of Bearishness yet.

Let us look at some India-specific developments.

India GDP Growth rate for the recent quarter stood at 6.7% compared to 7.8% in the earlier quarter. The slowdown was expected as India witnessed Elections in the previous quarter.
Reliance AGM concluded last week. Here are a few highlights.
- Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail are projected to double their revenue and profitability within the next 3-4 years. Overall Reliance Size to double by 2030.
- RIL introduces AI platform Jio Brain that includes features like Jio Cloud and Jio Phone Call AI, which offers call recording and transcription services.
- A significant announcement was the proposal to issue bonus shares at a ratio of 1:1, which is likely to be approved by the board on Sep 5.
- Reliance was up 2% post these announcements.

Note: All the charts and data points above are taken from Finvezto Toolkit. Try it for free for 7 Days here.

Key Stock Announcements Last week

Note: All the news items below include only the core business activities.

New Orders & Projects:

Business Operations:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Key Upcoming Events

September 2 (Monday):

India Manufacturing PMI Data

September 4 (Wednesday):

India Services PMI Data

September 5 (Thursday):

Reliance Board meeting

The rest of the information will be delivered through Dalal Street Breakfast (Pre- Market Report) on every market day at 8 AM. Check it out here!

All the charts and data points are taken from Finvezto Toolkit. Try it for free for 7 Days here.

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading Finvezto Compass. Please share it with people who might find it useful!

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Weekly Market Analysis for Aug 26-30, 2024

Anand Ganapathy — Sun, 25 Aug 2024 03:13:17 GMT

What happened last week?

Nifty closed at 24823 up by 1.15% from last week.

It has closed higher than the open for the 3rd consecutive week propelled by DIIs. FIIs were also net buyers during the last 2 days of the week.

Markets have not closed above 24870 in the weekly chart. We can expect another leg of up move if that happens. 24870 is the key level to watch on the upside. 24300 is the level to watch on the downside.

On the sectoral front…
Metals and PSU Banks continued their rebound from last week.

Consumption is a sector that FIIs are betting on.

Realty sank further.

On the global front…
most markets closed in green.

In his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Jerome Powell signalled that the Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates soon. It was on expected lines. US markets closed in the green after the event.

Japanese markets make a remarkable comeback from the early August slump.

Global cues are positive. Gift Nifty closed above 24900.

Let us now dive deeper into FII DII data.

FIIs sold ₹1620 Cr and DIIs bought ₹13020 Cr in the cash market.

FIIs continue to hold short positions on the Index. However, FIIs continue to hold their longs in Stock Derivatives suggesting stock-specific activity.

DIIs have increased their shorts on the Index significantly. This could be due to the uncertainty around the FED event. But we need to wait till Monday close to check if DIIs have hedged for the FED event or if they are anticipating something else.

Overall, FIIs are bullish on specific stocks and short on the Index. DIIs hold their highest shorts on the Index in recent times and seem to be cautious.

What is Nifty up to?

Both momentum (price) and sentiment (max pain) were bullish throughout last week. You should have been only on the long side of the trade last week. Nifty is bullish.

If you look at the Monthly Max Pain trend of Nifty below,
you can see that Max Pain (pink line) has shot up. Over the last 2 weeks, I have been pointing out that positional traders have not panicked despite Nifty falling below 24000. They were expecting a price rebound and it has happened. Not just that they have turned more bullish in the last 3 days.

Overall, Nifty is Bullish.

Let us look at some India-specific developments…

The Indian government has introduced a comprehensive roadmap aimed at reducing industrial waste, particularly focusing on non-ferrous metals. Some stocks that could benefit from this are Gravita, Eco Recycling, Baheti Recycling.

The HSBC India Composite PMI stood at 60.5 in Aug 2024. It was the 37th month of rise in private sector activity.

Key Stock Announcements

New Orders & Projects:

Partnerships, Acquisitions & Investments:

Business Operations:

Key Upcoming Events

August 29 (Thursday):

Euro Area Consumer Confidence
US GDP Growth Rate
US Initial Jobless Claims Data

August 30 (Friday):

Euro Area Inflation Rate
India GDP Growth Rate

The rest of the information will be delivered through Dalal Street Breakfast on every market day at 8 AM. Check it out here!

FINVEZTO.COM | Actionable Stock Market Ideas and Tools